April/May/June Madness

For the past few days, I've been contemplating writing about Ben Roethlisberger and sports leagues' personal conduct policies, but it's just so damned depressing, for some reason. Instead, I'm going to write about the NBA playoffs, which start tomorrow and end some time before the MLB playoffs start.

Question of the Week:

Who will win the NBA playoffs?

My take:

I'll start at the top. Neither #1 seed (Lakers or Cavs) looks particularly strong going into their first series. Both have lost 6 of their last 10.

The Cavs, of course, can blame some of that on their crouching-tiger-hidden-dragon superstar LeBron James. In fact, Cleveland will probably have two returning superstars to their lineup, as Shaq will return for their first-round matchup against the Bulls. While LeBron's triumphant return from street clothes will undoubtedly be a positive, I don't think Shaq's will be as useful. At this point in his career and for this team, having Shaq is like having fruit in Jell-O; it just sits there and gets in the way of what would otherwise be a pleasurable experience. Shaq's role on this team is to guard Dwight Howard, but that assumes a lot of things fall into place.

On the other hand, an NBA conspiracist might argue that a 2010 LeBron championship would be good for the league. LeBron says he's serious this time around and that brining a 'ship to Cleveland is very important to him. The only reason that would be more important this year than any other is that LeBron might feel more comfortable leaving his city after bringing them a trophy. If the David Sterns and Tim Donaghys of the world really do have as much influence on the games as some claim, then the LeBrons of these playoffs may have a big advantage and an easier path to New York.

The Lakers are in a very similar situation as the Cavs, minus the high school drama of a 2010 defector. Again, they've very much staggered into the playoffs and have a big man, Andrew Bynum, returning in the first series. I don't expect Bynum to be as much of a physical stumbling block as Shaq, but he could cause greater chemistry issues on a team that has seemed disinterested in winning and in each other of late. Unlike the Cavs, (most of) these Lakers already have their rings, so their motivation may be at an Office Space-after-the-hypnosis-scene level.

Other possible contenders:

The Orlando Magic have a great team, and Dwight Howard has had a dominating season (led the league in boards and blocks – and neither was even close). But, for no good reason at all, I'm going to pick the Charlotte Mikecats to upset them in the first round. So, that's my bold and stupid (and probably wrong) prediction for these playoffs. If the Ladycats can win an NBA dance squad championship, their male opposites should at least be second-round bound.

I also like the Atlanta Hawks, but they're still pretty young. Depending on how the 2010 free-agent fire sale goes down, Atlanta might be a good early pick for next year's championship.

Pretty much anybody in the West could win the whole damn thing, but there can only be one team to come out of that half of the bracket, which leads me to my championship picks.

The 'ship:

Oddly enough my pick for this does have championship-abbreviator Rasheed Wallace involved.

I'll take the Dallas Mavericks over the Boston C's in 6.

Two years ago, when the Celtics played the Lakers, I projected that – if, as KG claims, anything truly is possible – 2008 was the Celtics window. The Lakers were still forming an identity, but the Celtics were clearly banking on a fading one. That prediction, however, was before Rajon Rondo cemented his role as the best player on that team. I still don't think that Boston has enough to win it, but I think Rondo's emergence maintains their contender status (for now).

As for the Mavericks, I think they made all the right moves this season and have positioned themselves for a deep run. They have so many players who can score and have come into the playoffs proving just that, winning 8 of their last 10 to secure the two spot in the carousel Western Conference.

But, just in case the Spurs pull off the first-round upset (which is very possible considering the Spurs' and Mavs' playoff performances over the last decade) I will point out that you could substitute "Suns" for "Mavericks" in my previous statement and not lose any of the accuracy. I'm not; I'm just saying.