Usually, in my blogs, I give my opinion(s) and thought(s) on something(s). I've always kind of thought that's what blogs were for and, more importantly, what I had to offer. Today, I'm going to try something different and just create a database, of sorts, that probably won't include much opining – just facts.
I watched a good bit of the MLB first-year player draft on Monday night, what might always be known as the Bryce Harper draft. The MLB draft is by far the least interesting and exciting of the drafts of the three major sports (sorry hockey). There are a few reasons for this (here I go thinking again):
- It lacks name recognition. The NFL and NBA both draft from talent pools filled with nationally recognized players, since college football and basketball are fairly enormous. I dare you, without looking, to name more than one player from this year's draft.
- Signability. When teams draft high school players (and certain college players), those players have very legitimate options (specifically college) beyond signing a contract. In the NBA and NFL drafts, these options are much more European.
- There is a great distance between draft day and an MLB roster. Unlike Stephen Strasburg, who made his spectacular MLB debut roughly a year after being drafted, most drafted players take a few years in the minors before making any impact on their MLB drafters. Even Harper, the newest wunderkind, is projected to make his debut in three years.
So, here's where I stop thinking because I've already decided that I want to map the top ten draft picks over the past five years and, importantly, show where they're at now. I don't know if this exercise will have much value, but it's interesting to me, so here it is:
2005
- Arizona Diamondbacks: SS Justin Upton (Great Bridge HS) – Upton was called to the Majors (as an outfielder) fairly quickly after roughly two years in the minor leagues. He's still playing for the Diamondbacks and bringing down my fantasy team.
- KC Royals: 3B Alex Gordon (Nebraska) – Gordon was actually in the Bigs roughly five months before Upton. He has a career .249 average and hit 16 HRs in 2008.
- Seattle Mariners: C Jeff Clement (USC in California) – Clement, now a firstbaseman, played in a career-high 66 games for the Mariners in '08. He was traded to the Pirates last summer.
- Washington Nationals: 3B Ryan Zimmerman (UVA) – The Nationals seem to draft well (at least so far: Strasburg, Harper, Zimmerman), as Zimmerman is now a beast. Oddly enough, he was born in Washington, NC.
- Milwaukee Brewers: 3B Ryan Braun (Miami) – Braun's Tyler-Hansbrough eyes have moved to the outfield, but he has turned into a perennial All-Star candidate.
- Toronto Blue Jays: LHP Ricardo Romero (Cal. St. Fullerton (an apparent powerhouse)) – Now known as Ricky, Romero is starting to emerge as a quality SP, after a 13-9 debut last year.
- Colorado Rockies: SS Troy Tulowitzki (Cal. St. Long Beach) – Tulo has been a Colorado mainstay for the past four years and had a career-high 32 dingers last season.
- TB (Devil) Rays: RHP Wade Townsend (Rice) – Our fist full-on miss. Townsend has been injury prone since draft day and was released by the Rays last summer.
- NY Mets: RHP Michael Pelfrey (Wichita State) – Pelfrey had a winning record for the Mets in '08 (13-11), but has really come on this year with an 8-1 record and a 2.23 ERA.
- Detroit Tigers: CF Cameron Maybin (TC Roberson HS in NC) – In a rare turn of events, this young prospect actually went to the Marlins, where he played 54 games last season and is hitting .225 this year.
2006
- KC Royals: RHP Luke Hochevar (Tennessee) – Hochevar moved to the Majors pretty quickly (debuting in September of '07 and remaining with the team since then), but he's on the Royals. Austin could probably make their roster. Hochevar's career record of 18-30 and ERA of 5.65 don't have yet to justify the hype of this three-time draftee ('02 out of HS, '05 after college, and '06 after a year an independent league).
- Colorado Rockies: RHP Gregory Reynolds (Stanford) – Reynolds has only appeared in one MLB season, going 2-8 with an 8.13 ERA for the Rockies in '08. He's now pitching for the AA Tulsa Drillers.
- TB Rays: 3B Evan Longoria (Cal. St. Long Beach) – Longoria is fairly universally understood to be one of the best MLB players under 25. He's also surprisingly beating Yankee 3B Alex Rodriguez by roughly 500,000 votes in the popularity contest that is All-Star voting.
- Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Brad Lincoln (Houston) – Lincoln is set to make his MLB debut tonight, oddly enough. Now that's timing.
- Seattle Mariners: RHP Brandon Morrow (UC Berkeley) – If there is one thing I've learned from these first two years, it's that the Mariners don't keep their first-round picks around for long. Like Clement, Morrow left the Mariners organization and is now a bottom-of-the-rotation guy for the Blue Jays (4-4 with a 5.48 ERA this season).
- Detroit Tigers: LHP Andrew Miller (UNC) – Miller actually moved to the Bigs during the season of this draft, so kudos for that. Since then, he's struggled with the Tigers and then the Marlins as both a starter and from the bullpen (career 5.50 ERA). Miller is currently on the Marlins 40-man roster, but isn't on the team's active roster.
- LA Dodgers: LHP Clayton Kershaw (Highland Park HS) – This is Kershaw's third season in the Majors and could be his first with a winning record. His career ERA is a respectable 3.30.
- Cincinnati Reds: CF Robert "Drew" Stubbs (Texas) – The player formerly known as Robert played 42 games last season, but has 6 HRs and a .241 BA in what should be his first full season this year.
- Baltimore Orioles: 3B William Rowell (Bishop Eustace Prep School) – Rowell has yet to make it to AA and is now on the roster for the Carolina League's Frederick Keys, which is especially painful considering...
- SF Giants: RHP Timothy Lincecum (Washington) – Two Cy Youngs later, every team ahead of this should fire their scouts, with the possible exception of the Rays.
2007
- TB Rays: LHP David Price (Vanderbilt) – In fact, the Rays' scouts should probably be given a raise. Price made a few appearances in '08 then went 10-7 in 23 starts in '09. This year may be his breakout year, though, as he's 8-2 with a 2.29 ERA (for my fantasy team).
- KC Royals: SS Michael Moustakas (Chatsworth HS) – Moustakas made it to AA this year as a 3B. He's hitting .368 with 13 HRs in 39 games. If only the Royals didn't have Alex Gordon.
- Chicago Cubs: 3B Joshua Vitters (Cypress HS) – Vitters is also a AA 3B, but he's only hitting .215 with one home run over 25 games. Surprise: the Cubs did something that didn't work out.
- Pittsburgh Pirates: LHP Daniel Moskos (Clemson) – Danny Moskos is 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA as a relief pitcher for the AA Altoona Curve.
- Baltimore Orioles: C Matthew Wieters (Georgia Tech) – I was getting worried that I wouldn't recognize anybody else. Wieters rose to the Orioles fairly quickly, playing in 96 games in '09. He has a career .274 average with 13 HRs in 148 games played.
- Washington Nationals: LHP Ross Detwiler (Missouri State) – Who goes to Missouri State? Detwiler started 14 games last season for the big club, but had a 1-6 record with a 5.00 ERA. He's now on the roster for the AAA Syracuse Chiefs.
- Milwaukee Brewers: LF Matthew LaPorta (Florida) – LaPorta moved to Cleveland where he's hit .240 with 8 HRs over 87 games in the past two seasons as a 1B.
- Colorado Rockies: RHP Casey Weathers (Vanderbilt) – Weathers is bouncing around in the Rockies' farm system as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
- Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Jarrod Parker (Norwell HS) – Parker is bouncing around in the Diamondbacks' farm system as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
- SF Giants: LHP Madison Bumgarner (South Caldwell HS) – Bumgarner played in 4 games for the Giants last season and gave up only two solo HRs over 10 innings, while striking out 10. He's now playing for their AAA affiliate, since the Giants rotation is just ridiculous.
2008
- TB Rays: SS Timothy Beckham (Griffin HS) – Why do the Rays continue to pick at or near the top? Beckham is probably the first player drafted who was born in the '90s. He's on the roster for the advanced A Charlotte Stone Crabs. That's their real name. He's only hitting .218 with 5 HRs and 10 SBs in 46 games this season.
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 3B Pedro Alvarez (Vanderbilt) – Alvarez is hitting .278 with 11 HRs and 48 RBI in 59 games for the AAA Indianapolis Indians.
- KC Royals: 1B Eric Hosmer (American Heritage School) – Hosmer is hitting .359 for the advanced A Wilmington Blue Rocks, who are in the Carolina League despite the fact that they are in Wilmington, Delaware, not Wilmington, NC.
- Baltimore Orioles: LHP Brian Matusz (San Diego) – Matusz, formerly of my fantasy team, is 7-8 with a 4.92 ERA in 20 starts over the past two seasons for the Orioles.
- SF Giants: C Gerald "Buster" Posey (Florida State) – Pose is hitting .444 in just 36 ABs this season with the big club. He also played in seven games last year.
- Florida Marlins: C Kyle Skipworth (Patriot HS) – Skipworth plays for the A Greensboro Grasshoppers (actually in NC). He's hitting .238 with 10 HRs in 56 games.
- Cincinnati Reds: 1B Yonder Alonso (Miami) – Mr. Yonder was also playing in NC earlier this season (for the Carolina Mudcats) but has since been promoted to the AAA Louisville Bats, where he's only hitting .219 with 2 HRs and 13 RBI in 26 games.
- Chicago White Sox: SS James "Gordon" Beckham (Georgia) – It seems Beckham is a good name for sports stars. Take note ladies. Beckham played in 103 games last season and hit .270, but he's sucking it up this year with a .199 BA and only 12 RBI over 51 games. He was probably my worst fantasy draft pick of the year.
- Washington Nationals: RHP Aaron Crow (Missouri) – Crow didn't sign with the Nats and was drafted 12th overall the following year by the KC Royals. He now plays for the AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals where he has a 5.68 ERA. Maybe the Nationals dodged a bullet here.
- Houston Astros: C Jason Castro (Stanford) – The third catcher in the top ten, for some reason. Castro is hitting .285 for the AAA Round Rock Express.
2009
- Washington Nationals: RHP Stephen Strasburg (San Diego State) – In one (1) Major League start, Mr. Strasburg is a perfect 1-0 with a disappointing 2.57 ERA and 14 Ks over 7 innings. This blog has really illuminated the rarity of a Strasburg-type situation. Very few players reach the Majors within a year of their draft.
- Seattle Mariners: CF Dustin Ackley (UNC) – Ackley's hitting a fairly disappointing .243 with only one HR and 18 RBI over 52 games with the AA West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx. And all the Tar Heels shed a tear.
- SD Padres: CF Donavan Tate (Cartersville HS) – Tate, who – according to Wikipedia – committed to UNC for baseball and football, is somewhere in the Padres organization after signing a $6.7 million bonus. He's not in the MLB.com minor league database though.
- Pittsburgh Pirates: C Jorge "Tony" Sanchez (Boston College) – Sanchez is hitting .318 with the advanced A Bradenton Marauders.
- Baltimore Orioles: RHP Matthew Hobgood (Norco HS) – Hobgood is 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA for the A Delmarva Shorebirds.
- SF Giants: RHP Zachary Wheeler (East Paulding HS) – Wheeler is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA for the A Augusta GreenJackets, which is an oddly incorrect way of naming a team. What if the Charlotte Bobcats were the Charlotte BobCats?
- Atlanta Braves: LHP Michael Minor (Vanderbilt) – Minor is 1-5 with a 4.24 ERA for the AA Mississippi Braves.
- Cincinnati Reds: RHP Michael Leake (Arizona State) – Leake actually beat Strasburg to the Majors, as he was on the opening day roster. Leake is 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA in the Reds annoying attempt to win the NL Central. So, at this point, he's better than Strasburg. Face.
- Detroit Tigers: RHP Jacob Turner (Westminster Christian Academy) – Why do the Tigers keep picking this high in the draft? I thought they were good. Turner is 1-3 with a 4.01 ERA for the A West Michigan Whitecaps.
- Washington Nationals (again): RHP Drew Storen (Stanford) – Storen also beat Strasburg to the Majors and has pitched in 10 games from the bullpen. He has a 1.93 ERA and three holds, which are a real stat.
I think the most important thing to take from this blog is that the MLB draft does matter. Eventually. And especially in 2005.
Quote of the Week:
"I want to be the best player to ever play the game. I want to be the best hitter who ever played the game. I want to hit .430. Who wouldn't want to be in the Hall of Fame?"
-Bryce Harper
Dude what a spectacular blog. And My goodness who knew that the MLB draft truly mattered that much...at least the Top 10. I seriously doubt you were trying to make that point when you started out but damnit what interesting info. Well done.
ReplyDeleteYes I am a baseball geek. I can't beleive Matthew hasn't responded yet...
Apparently when Leake and Strasburg were 11, they played together on the same traveling team.
ReplyDeleteThat's my fun fact from the land of Strasburg-mania.
great info...the Royals actually have already moved on from Gordon, and he is now developing as a backup OF. Weak.
ReplyDelete