Friday, June 24, 2011

It's a list

Last night’s draft saw a lot of reaching (i.e. Tristan Thompson at 4, the Lakers later picks…). As Jay Bilas put it, the teams seemed to be searching for the proverbial diamond in the rough (like Aladdin) in a draft that isn’t thought to have many clear stars.

A lot of the reaching, especially late in the draft, skewed international. That combination made me wonder: does that really work? This draft saw 13 (22%) international players who never played college ball come off the board, but there are only 58 (roughly 13%) international players in the league who didn’t play for an American college, and that’s across years of drafting. So, if searching for a diamond in the rough, is it really worth drafting internationally?

If we’re really talking “diamonds,” I think that’s a pretty select group, so I’ve compiled a list of the 35 most important franchise players (at some point in their careers) in the league and divided that group based on where the player was drafted from.

High School

Kevin Garnett, 5th overall pick in 1995

Monta Ellis, 40 in 2005

Tracy McGrady, 9 in 1997

Kobe Bryant, 13 in 1996

LeBron James, 1 in 2003

Amare Stoudemire, 9 in 2002

Dwight Howard, 1 in 2004

College

Paul Pierce, 10 in 1998

Rajon Rondo, 21 in 2006

Ray Allen, 5 in 1996

Joe Johnson, 10 in 2001

Al Horford, 3 in 2007

Derrick Rose, 1 in 2008

Jason Kidd, 2 in 1994

Stephen Curry, 7 in 2009

Blake Griffin, 1 in 2009

Zach Randolph, 19 in 2001

Dwyane Wade, 5 in 2003

Chris Bosh, 4 in 2003

Deron Williams, 3 in 2005

Chris Paul, 4 in 2005

Carmelo Anthony, 3 in 2003

Kevin Durant, 2 in 2007

Russell Westbrook, 4 in 2008

Andre Iguodala, 9 in 2004

Steve Nash, 15 in 1996

Vince Carter, 5 in 1998

LaMarcus Aldridge, 2 in 2006

Tim Duncan, 1 in 1997

John Wall, 1 in 2010

International

Dirk Nowitzki, 9 in 1998

Yao Ming, 1 in 2002

Pau Gasol, 3 in 2001

Tony Parker, 28 in 2001

Manu Ginobli, 57 in 1999

What I’ve learned from this list:

The one-and-done rule sucks, and I hate it (but I already knew that).

The percentage of star international players in the league (14%) does roughly represent the percentage of international players in the league (13%), but that’s only because I counted Parker, Ginobli (both questionable inclusions) and Yao (questionably “still in the league”). There are really only two international players in the league who I would want as the cornerstone of a franchise.

True star players, regardless of origin story, are really hard to get outside of the top ten picks, unless you’re San Antonio. NBA scouts get good money for a reason. But, outside of the lottery, teams are about as likely to get a star foreign player as they are to get a star college or high school player, which is to say, not very likely.

Question of the Day:

Which player from last night’s draft not named Kyrie Irving or Derrick Williams will have the best NBA career?

My take: If you read my fake mock draft blog, then you’re a saint and you know I’m pretty high on Klay Thompson. But for this blog, I’m going to make another pick: Jordan Hamilton, eventually of the Denver Nuggets. He’s a scorer who is going to a team that likes to score. He’s also poised to get some good minutes in their relatively fluid lineup, especially if J.R. Smith doesn’t re-sign.

2 comments:

  1. QoD:
    I'm going to guess Brandon Knight? Why? Because the Bobcats had a chance to draft him and passed on him, so that makes him almost a sure thing to have a good career. Also because he seems like a good kid, who works hard and now has a chip on his shoulder because he slid. So I think he's got a good shot. I also like Hamilton and Thompson...two other picks I would've preferred for the 'Cats besides Bismack and Kemba...who sound like the names of Lion King characters.

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  2. You're mock draft blog was intimidatingly big.

    How could you vote against Kemba Walker? How good was he in the end of season tournaments???

    I can't believe Pujols is already back. Maybe he is a Machine

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