Last night’s draft saw a lot of reaching (i.e. Tristan Thompson at 4, the Lakers later picks…). As Jay Bilas put it, the teams seemed to be searching for the proverbial diamond in the rough (like Aladdin) in a draft that isn’t thought to have many clear stars.
A lot of the reaching, especially late in the draft, skewed international. That combination made me wonder: does that really work? This draft saw 13 (22%) international players who never played college ball come off the board, but there are only 58 (roughly 13%) international players in the league who didn’t play for an American college, and that’s across years of drafting. So, if searching for a diamond in the rough, is it really worth drafting internationally?
If we’re really talking “diamonds,” I think that’s a pretty select group, so I’ve compiled a list of the 35 most important franchise players (at some point in their careers) in the league and divided that group based on where the player was drafted from.
High School
Kevin Garnett, 5th overall pick in 1995
Monta Ellis, 40 in 2005
Tracy McGrady, 9 in 1997
Kobe Bryant, 13 in 1996
LeBron James, 1 in 2003
Amare Stoudemire, 9 in 2002
Dwight Howard, 1 in 2004
College
Paul Pierce, 10 in 1998
Rajon Rondo, 21 in 2006
Ray Allen, 5 in 1996
Joe Johnson, 10 in 2001
Al Horford, 3 in 2007
Derrick Rose, 1 in 2008
Jason Kidd, 2 in 1994
Stephen Curry, 7 in 2009
Blake Griffin, 1 in 2009
Zach Randolph, 19 in 2001
Dwyane Wade, 5 in 2003
Chris Bosh, 4 in 2003
Deron Williams, 3 in 2005
Chris Paul, 4 in 2005
Carmelo Anthony, 3 in 2003
Kevin Durant, 2 in 2007
Russell Westbrook, 4 in 2008
Andre Iguodala, 9 in 2004
Steve Nash, 15 in 1996
Vince Carter, 5 in 1998
LaMarcus Aldridge, 2 in 2006
Tim Duncan, 1 in 1997
John Wall, 1 in 2010
International
Dirk Nowitzki, 9 in 1998
Yao Ming, 1 in 2002
Pau Gasol, 3 in 2001
Tony Parker, 28 in 2001
Manu Ginobli, 57 in 1999
What I’ve learned from this list:
The one-and-done rule sucks, and I hate it (but I already knew that).
The percentage of star international players in the league (14%) does roughly represent the percentage of international players in the league (13%), but that’s only because I counted Parker, Ginobli (both questionable inclusions) and Yao (questionably “still in the league”). There are really only two international players in the league who I would want as the cornerstone of a franchise.
True star players, regardless of origin story, are really hard to get outside of the top ten picks, unless you’re San Antonio. NBA scouts get good money for a reason. But, outside of the lottery, teams are about as likely to get a star foreign player as they are to get a star college or high school player, which is to say, not very likely.
Question of the Day:
Which player from last night’s draft not named Kyrie Irving or Derrick Williams will have the best NBA career?
My take: If you read my fake mock draft blog, then you’re a saint and you know I’m pretty high on Klay Thompson. But for this blog, I’m going to make another pick: Jordan Hamilton, eventually of the Denver Nuggets. He’s a scorer who is going to a team that likes to score. He’s also poised to get some good minutes in their relatively fluid lineup, especially if J.R. Smith doesn’t re-sign.
QoD:
ReplyDeleteI'm going to guess Brandon Knight? Why? Because the Bobcats had a chance to draft him and passed on him, so that makes him almost a sure thing to have a good career. Also because he seems like a good kid, who works hard and now has a chip on his shoulder because he slid. So I think he's got a good shot. I also like Hamilton and Thompson...two other picks I would've preferred for the 'Cats besides Bismack and Kemba...who sound like the names of Lion King characters.
You're mock draft blog was intimidatingly big.
ReplyDeleteHow could you vote against Kemba Walker? How good was he in the end of season tournaments???
I can't believe Pujols is already back. Maybe he is a Machine